Belarus, the Iraq of Europe

Silencer

Silencer

Night Watchman
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So, there are going to be presidential elections in BY, and already the oppresive lukashenkan government is cracking down on the opossition. He just won't let go.

Riga, February 24, 2006. -- The United States Embassy in Latvia notes with great concern the recent events surrounding the elections in Belarus. On Thursday, February 23, State Department Deputy Spokesman Adam Ereli issued the following statement:

The United States condemns the continued detention, harassment and fining of Belarusian citizens for exercising their civil and political rights in the lead up to that country�s Presidential elections on March 19.

Particularly troubling were the actions taken against the civil society group Partnership on February 21. Belarus officials detained the group's leader and deputy, raided its offices, and seized its documents and equipment.

These actions intensify already serious doubts about the Belarusian authorities' willingness to conduct the upcoming elections in accordance with international standards and their OSCE obligations.

The United States calls on Belarus to respect the rights of its citizens, to release those detained and to cease harassing those promoting democratic elections. The United States urges the international community to take careful note of those in Belarus responsible for trampling the rights of their fellow citizens.
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http://www.usembassy.lv/happenings/rel20060224

I can undertand they fear not Georgians, but maybe Europe could do SOMETHING.

Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee for Defense and Security Givi Targamadze said on March 2 that the Belarus authorities have refused to let the Georgian side observe the presidential elections in the country, scheduled for March 19.

“All this started on January 20, when the Chairman of the Central Election Commission of Belarus said that he is inviting missions from all the CIS members states except Georgia... However, after Georgia expressed protest at the CIS Parliamentary Assembly [on February 9-10] we were promised that the Georgian delegation would be allowed to [monitor] elections. Today, we received an absurd explanation [for this refusal], that the forms filled-out by us have not reached their destination,” Targamadze told Rustavi 2 television.

He said that although the Belarus CEC suspended accreditation of observers on February 25, citing an abundance, “we will make one more attempt to monitor the elections in frames of the OSCE Election Observation Mission.”

Chief of the Belarus State Security Service, the KGB, Stepan Sukhorenko said on March 1 that his service foiled a plot by the opposition to seize power in the country after the Presidential elections.

He also said that “fighters from Georgia” were expected to arrive in Belarus to help the opposition.

Georgian Parliamentary Chairperson Nino Burjanadze dismissed these accusations as “ridiculous.”

MP Givi Targamadze said that the Belarus authorities are afraid of Georgia’s experience of the Rose Revolution.

“We are not going to export our revolution, but we are, of course, planning to help the Belarusian people during these elections,” MP Targamadze said and added that he visited Belarus a few weeks ago.

Alexander Lukashenko is seeking a third term as the President of Belarus. His main challenger in the 19 March elections, Alexander Milinkevich, has warned of protests if the polls are not fair.
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http://www.bakutoday.net/view.php?d=17303

Previous elections have been denounced as undemocratic, now.
http://www.slovakspectator.sk/clanok-17679.html

On the other hand, hadn't the previous elections been recognized after all? http://www.ce-review.org/01/5/belarusnews5.html

And even though the opposition candidate has support

Par657720.jpeg


The state television is ALREADY predicting an 83% outcome in favour of Lukashenko, IN FIRST TURN. No runoffs planned, mind you.

iraq-vote-form.jpg


Comes to mind. Just change the flag and the names. Well, pehaps change "torture" and "kill" to "detain" and "harass" Geee, you're SO CIVIL, Mr Lukashenko.

And also, this is happening just in our back yard. Not Africa, or Columbia, or other pudunk end of the world (no offense to the africans or Latin Amricans who might read this, but you ARE far away.)

A handy reference: http://minsk.usembassy.gov/html/bel_elections.html
 
Weird, all belorussians I know think they rather stay with "Bat'ka" (Lu) than become another Ukraine/Georgia... Oh well, who's going to ask them, right? It's more of EU/US against Russia thing.
 
He does have a point there, just look at the economic/geopolitical situation in Ukraine and Georgia following their “colorful” revolutions.

Let us not forget the possibility of some kind of a union between Belarus and the Russian Federation. chances for that are slim, but it still remains a possibility.

Lukasheno has too much power - he won’t hesitate to crack down on western sponsored demonstrations.
 
USA and Europe can bite Lukashenko. They have no leverage whatsoever against him. Belarus is economically marginal, isolated and entirely dependent on cheap gas they get from Russia.

The only way Lukashenko's regime can get toppled is if Russians start selling their gas to Belarus at competitive prices. Belarus economy would inevitably collapse as a result and Lukashenko would soon fall.

That won't happen any time soon, though. Even though the Moscow establishment despise Lukashenko for his rigid conservativism, they still regard Belarus as an important ally at the threshold of Europe. If a pro-western government rose to power there, western influence would extend practically all the way to Moscow. Russians simply can't permit that.
 
So? Either they should withdraw support for the regime and watch it collapse, or push for an union and maybe then Belarussians could travel freely, make business in Russia, and familiarise themselves with the Western <s>filth</s> feel that had already spilt there. The current situation is unacceptable.
 
Georgia and Ukraine have already revealed themselves to be abject failures. There is little reason for Belarus to wish to follow that road.

Meh, can't be more than a decade until Belarus is swallowed up into the Russian Confederate anyway. So meh.
 
John Uskglass said:
Or not.
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Yes, indeed, "or not", what a terribly useful additive there. Certainly nothing I had thought of as of yet.

Anyone who knows anything about Russian politics is well aware of Russia, Belarus and developments between the two since the fall of the Wall, and the direction in which it is headed. Trying to predict it is trying to read a crystal ball and depends mostly on the actions of Mr. Putin in the next few years, though.

So yes, "or not". Brave, good sir.
 
It makes a kind of sense. IIRC 90% of Belarussians speak Russian primarily, it is something of an accident the nation is independant in any situation.

But I am not sure how NATO and the EU would view a Russian expansion. It stinks of Molotov-Ribbentrop.
 
John Uskglass said:
It makes a kind of sense. IIRC 90% of Belarussians speak Russian primarily, it is something of an accident the nation is independant in any situation.
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The latter can be said of many countries, but it does apply more to Belarus.

It's political gains that're in their minds, though, big national unity stuff...meh...

John Uskglass said:
IBut I am not sure how NATO and the EU would view a Russian expansion. It stinks of Molotov-Ribbentrop.
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They won't be able to do that much about it, since it's not a violent expansion, but an expansion by a president they failed to do anything about.

Way lots of political analysts figure it is that the new union would allow Putin to become head of the union (boss, in effec) with his prince as boss of Russia and good ol' Lukashenko unhindered by any nasty constitutions to continue to rule Belarus.

On that note, Lukashenko's popularity in Belarus is not terrible. He could probably win on the old people's vote, get a majority simply by campaigning. He's too power-starved and too much of a paranoid android for it, though
 
Yeah, next thing we know you'll start reclaiming the entire Poland-Lithuanian land.

And we don't want that.

Buncha land-snatchers.
 
Fuck, make it a Federation republic ASAP. At least Putin's good at pretending his country is democratic.
 
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