You can't predict the share market, much

DarkUnderlord

Water Chip? Been There, Done That
Gather round and let me tell you a story.

A few years ago, a guy known as "Big Kev" sold his cleaning products via direct TV selling on a program called "Good Morning Australia". The kind of "call within the next 15 minutes, we've got a great deal for you" ads where this guy, Big Kev, would hawk his products.

Well, Big Kev's was actually doing quite well that way. People bought his "Goo Remover" and other such named products and Big Kev was happy. Well, Big Kev decided to list on the share market. He ran ads and eventually listed with a share price of $0.50 (AUS) per share, giving the company a market value of some $20 million (or something around the millions there). I didn't take part in the IPO but did get the prospectus. I've always been a bit of a risk taker, a company with no history (very short) and a selling method via TV "morning shows" with no experience getting products on the supermarket shelves (which was the plan and is a brutal part of that type of business).

I watched the shares over the first day of the company's share market launch. They dropped to $0.45, climbed to $0.55, dropped to $0.47, climbed again to around $0.55. They dropped again to $0.45. I bought. I bought about $5,000 worth. If they climbed to $0.55, I'd make a bit over $600 (10%) and sell. Over the next two to three months they never climbed. I got them on the way down, the way, way down.

Big Kev's eventually dropped to $0.08 (Yup, 8 cents) and stayed there. The market didn't have a lot of confidence in Big Kev. On the way down though, I bought another $2,000 at around the $0.27 mark. If they went up, I'd at least break even / not lose as much (or so the theory goes).

One year later, Big Kev's shares were around the $0.04 mark. The company was running out of money, the products weren't being sold on supermarket shelves, direct TV advertising had stopped. Another year and the company would run out of money. I decided to sell them and salvage what little I could.

That was about two weeks ago. Last week, I decided the time was right. They'd get ditched this weekend (or at least that's when I'd put the order in, they wouldn't get sold til the market opened on Monday). Then a funny thing happened. Saturday's paper had a little article about a take-over of Big Kev. The share price climbed. It climbed to $0.40. Did I sell? You sure as fucking hell I did. The shares I'd bought at $0.27 evened out my loss from those I'd bought at $0.45. In fact, I even made a profit. A little $200 profit but a profit none the less.

I'd never have predicted this. Needless to say, I'm rather quite happy about it all because had I sold them two weeks ago...
 
$200 bucks is better than nothing, and considering how much you could have lost I would call it more than just a minor victory. :ok:
 
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