The Ticking of the Clock

So basically the purpose of this thread is to speculate how long the New California Republic has left.

In my opinion? Not long. The Republic is a shadow of the Old World, yet unlike the Legion, it’s beginning to rot from the inside. Corruption, inefficiency, ineffective military tactics, the writing is on the wall. This isn’t to say that the Republic isn’t a threat; quite the contrary, their trade routes and manpower still make them a very serious contender for the Hoover Dam, and they most certainly would win a war of attrition with any other faction, save perhaps the Strip (though, an NCR blockade would likely put high and mighty House in his place).

The NCR is dangerous. I’m not denying that. They’re still one of the largest, if not the largest, faction in the Wasteland, and despite their sluggishness to mobilize, they make up for it with human wave tactics.

But enough flattering the enemy. My theory is that the Republic, should they win Hoover Dam, and possibly even stall the Legion (I’ve the feeling that unless you utterly annihilate the entire faction, Legionaries will live on. Like Khans or cockroaches, Caesar’s Legion is built to endure, and each individual unit is even more of a survivor than the average raider), will collapse within the span of a few decades. 30 years, at the most.

My evidence is literally everything in NV; look around the Mojave. The NCR military is spread thinner than how I like my bread buttered, and according to Republican npcs (specifically the Trading Post Weapons Dealer), their new recruits are woefully ill equipped, sometimes not even receiving body armor. Beyond that, their greatest advantage, economic superiority, is in dire straits, especially should the Courier complete Heartaches By the Numbers. By eliminating or exposing the Van Graffs and Alice McLafferty, the Gun Runners are in a prime position to gain a monopoly on weapons dealing; and we all should know what monopolies do to capitalist democracies.

What’s more, stress from the Powder Gang, the surviving Khans, and the numerous caravan attacks and campaigns of guérilla warfare and terror by the Legion are sending the Republic on the fast track to Hell. The wolves are at the gate, ready to tear out the tethered bear’s throat. The NCR simply isn’t in a position to hold any more land (or even the land they have) effectively, while other factions, such as the Khans, only have room to grow. Imperialism has put the final nail in the NCR’s coffin, and they’ll kill themselves should the Legion not do it for them.

All in all, the outlook is bleak even for a victorious Republic. Makes me proud, it does.

What do you all think? How long does the New California Republic have left? I’m interested to hear responses.

 

Rotten as you’d like to believe the Legion is, they’re doing a better job at surviving than the Republic. The NCR is prospering, but is also at the end of its rope. The Legion is perhaps rotten, but still has nowhere to go but up, especially should Caesar be telling the truth about his plans for the Legion.

 

“No need to kill the bear. Only cut its throat... bleed it.” -Ulysses

The fanaticism of the Legion and the fanaticism of the Republic are two entirely different brands of idolatry.

As for why I used that quote... the Republic is nothing without volunteer military and economic superiority, both of which are heading down the drain, as I stated initially. The NCR is going to die, because as much as even I’d like to believe that they’ll pull themselves together after Hoover Dam (they are a worthy match for the Legion), with their economy in shambles and support for conflict gone entirely after the loss of the Dam, the Republic will slowly rot away.

@R.Graves their main caravan companies, their source of income, are based in the Mojave. Only the Gun Runners aren’t. Once the Gun Runners have a monopoly, don’t you think a coup will be in order?

 

Alright, let’s say they don’t; McLafferty is short staffed and the Van Graffs wanna make a power play on the Republic. It’s the same result, just with the Van Graffs instead of the Gun Runners and more protracted.

 

I will concede that the raiders on their own won’t topple the Republic, but on multiple fronts? It’s shown in the ending slides that when the NCR is pushed out of Vegas, the fiends attack McCarran and inflict massive losses (assuming Cook Cook, Driver Nephi, Violet, and Motor Runner are still alive). Then there’s the Khans allying with the Legion, the Legion themselves, and the powder gang hitting NCR caravans and patrols.

The NCR is the strongest faction in the wasteland for sure, but they simply can’t hold up a fight on multiple fronts like that for very long. Assuming all of the NCR’s enemies attack, or even minus one or two, the Republic will be overwhelmed and pushed back to California, where as I stated loss of support for war will ensure no public support for a counterattack.

 

Indeed. At this point, the NCR’s trade route along the Long 15 is all they have left tying them to the Mojave, assuming the Courier doesn’t nuke it. Why not cut losses, rather than trying for a second battle at the Dam, a second battle that the Legion is clearly in a better position to win? Why not set up a perimeter at the Mojave Outpost?

The NCR is simply in a bad position any way you cut it, and bullheaded leaders like Oliver and President Peaches aren’t helping matters. Hell, even Hanlon is losing faith in the cause of the Dam, which speaks volumes about the NCR’s faith in its own high command, when that high command of the most elite troops in the Mojave is unsure of victory and utterly demoralized.

 

Perhaps; but that stability is almost dependent on what nation rises; that of the Legion, NCR, House, or C6.

The Dam is indeed a small chess piece in a much larger game, and perhaps will have minimal impact. But my argument is that with how much the NCR has deteriorated since Fallout 2, their collapse is on the horizon; the Legion and the Dam only serve to hasten it.

 

The Legion, like it or not, is efficient where the Republic is inefficient. Brutal and effective where the NCR is soft and useless. Ending slides show it; the Legion brings savage civilization to the Mojave, and wipes out raiders. The Republic struggles even to prosecute McLafferty and Gloria Van Graff should their conspiracy be turned in to the NCR.

The NCR, quite frankly, is a shadow of the Old World. Perhaps the Legion is too. But like a shadow, the Republic has no substance. It has fallen from its glory in the Fallout 2 era, and rather gestates while the rot within destroys it. Corruption in the Legion will earn you a crucifixion. To put it bluntly? The Legion's dictatorial form of governance makes it less susceptible to the issues currently wracking the NCR.

 

Hey, Squad is the one that wanted me to talk about the Legion. I was more interested in talking about the NCR.

 

@Sublime I can see your point; and I agree that it would certainly be better for the Republic in a House situation, whether they realize it or not. As for the NCR surviving, I think it depends on perspective. As you know, I’m a Legion supporter, so I may be askew in saying that the Republic will fall; however, objective warning signs are there. And whether the Republic truly survives in its ideal form is a matter of debate, hence this thread; I believe that should the NCR last longer than expected, they’ll still die in the sense as to be unrecognizable.

As for the Legion, I think that smaller states is the most likely outcome, however pinning it all on Caesar’s cult of personality is a mistake many make. The Legion has its share of charismatic leaders, and whether they pull the Legion in different directions should Edward Sallow die is a matter of perspective and whether or not they can work together, despite their differences.