The Ticking of the Clock

Discussion in 'Fallout: New Vegas Discussion' started by KingArthur, Jul 23, 2019.

  1. KingArthur

    KingArthur Yeehaw Johnny Reb

    Jun 25, 2018
    So basically the purpose of this thread is to speculate how long the New California Republic has left.

    In my opinion? Not long. The Republic is a shadow of the Old World, yet unlike the Legion, it’s beginning to rot from the inside. Corruption, inefficiency, ineffective military tactics, the writing is on the wall. This isn’t to say that the Republic isn’t a threat; quite the contrary, their trade routes and manpower still make them a very serious contender for the Hoover Dam, and they most certainly would win a war of attrition with any other faction, save perhaps the Strip (though, an NCR blockade would likely put high and mighty House in his place).

    The NCR is dangerous. I’m not denying that. They’re still one of the largest, if not the largest, faction in the Wasteland, and despite their sluggishness to mobilize, they make up for it with human wave tactics.

    But enough flattering the enemy. My theory is that the Republic, should they win Hoover Dam, and possibly even stall the Legion (I’ve the feeling that unless you utterly annihilate the entire faction, Legionaries will live on. Like Khans or cockroaches, Caesar’s Legion is built to endure, and each individual unit is even more of a survivor than the average raider), will collapse within the span of a few decades. 30 years, at the most.

    My evidence is literally everything in NV; look around the Mojave. The NCR military is spread thinner than how I like my bread buttered, and according to Republican npcs (specifically the Trading Post Weapons Dealer), their new recruits are woefully ill equipped, sometimes not even receiving body armor. Beyond that, their greatest advantage, economic superiority, is in dire straits, especially should the Courier complete Heartaches By the Numbers. By eliminating or exposing the Van Graffs and Alice McLafferty, the Gun Runners are in a prime position to gain a monopoly on weapons dealing; and we all should know what monopolies do to capitalist democracies.

    What’s more, stress from the Powder Gang, the surviving Khans, and the numerous caravan attacks and campaigns of guérilla warfare and terror by the Legion are sending the Republic on the fast track to Hell. The wolves are at the gate, ready to tear out the tethered bear’s throat. The NCR simply isn’t in a position to hold any more land (or even the land they have) effectively, while other factions, such as the Khans, only have room to grow. Imperialism has put the final nail in the NCR’s coffin, and they’ll kill themselves should the Legion not do it for them.

    All in all, the outlook is bleak even for a victorious Republic. Makes me proud, it does.

    What do you all think? How long does the New California Republic have left? I’m interested to hear responses.
    • [Rad] [Rad] x 1
  2. Ayelander

    Ayelander Big Man

    Jun 30, 2018
    Unfair. You can't compare a Raider gang that was rotten from the start, to the first, real nation to form post-war.
  3. KingArthur

    KingArthur Yeehaw Johnny Reb

    Jun 25, 2018
    Rotten as you’d like to believe the Legion is, they’re doing a better job at surviving than the Republic. The NCR is prospering, but is also at the end of its rope. The Legion is perhaps rotten, but still has nowhere to go but up, especially should Caesar be telling the truth about his plans for the Legion.
  4. Ayelander

    Ayelander Big Man

    Jun 30, 2018
    Subjugation isn't survival. The Legion only survives by thinning the population, keeping the women and children and turning them into mindless drones for an egomaniac playing dressup. NCR is spread thin, but not enough to collapse. NCR citizens are demoralized, so they say the NCR will fall. NCR's enemies want them to fall, so they say the NCR will fall. NCR's allies want a bigger slice of the pie so they say the NCR will fall. You make the point that if the head of the Legion dies, they'll go on through sheer fanaticism. And the NCR wouldn't? They revere Tandi and the nation she built just as strongly as the Legion reveres Caesar. The NCR would pull themselves together after a defeat at Hoover Dam just as well as a bunch of spear-chucking tribals would. It just depends on whether House/C6 forces them out or if the Legion does.
  5. R.Graves

    R.Graves Confirmed Retard

    Apr 21, 2016
    Eh judging an entire civilization from a wild west frontier is kind of... Dumb? The ncrs only problem from a power standpoiny they stretched themselves too thin. The Mojave isn't the only place they are. They past California all the way down to Baja.
  6. KingArthur

    KingArthur Yeehaw Johnny Reb

    Jun 25, 2018
    “No need to kill the bear. Only cut its throat... bleed it.” -Ulysses

    The fanaticism of the Legion and the fanaticism of the Republic are two entirely different brands of idolatry.

    As for why I used that quote... the Republic is nothing without volunteer military and economic superiority, both of which are heading down the drain, as I stated initially. The NCR is going to die, because as much as even I’d like to believe that they’ll pull themselves together after Hoover Dam (they are a worthy match for the Legion), with their economy in shambles and support for conflict gone entirely after the loss of the Dam, the Republic will slowly rot away.

    @R.Graves their main caravan companies, their source of income, are based in the Mojave. Only the Gun Runners aren’t. Once the Gun Runners have a monopoly, don’t you think a coup will be in order?
  7. Ayelander

    Ayelander Big Man

    Jun 30, 2018
    You're putting way too much bank into Courier 6 completing that optional task.
  8. KingArthur

    KingArthur Yeehaw Johnny Reb

    Jun 25, 2018
    Alright, let’s say they don’t; McLafferty is short staffed and the Van Graffs wanna make a power play on the Republic. It’s the same result, just with the Van Graffs instead of the Gun Runners and more protracted.
  9. TheOtherManInTheRoom

    TheOtherManInTheRoom Watchman

    Mar 28, 2018
    Agree with Ayelander here on how people talk up the NCR falling for their own benefits.

    Would like to add that much of the population of the Mojave is more interested in talking about stuff than toppling the NCR. Most of the populations you meet seem resigned to the fact that the NCR is inevitable. Just like we do, when we complain about our respective governments. Few of us want or can envisage them toppled, just refined. Yeah, the powder gangers (ncr would crush with just the rangers) brotherhood of steel (who the NCR have beaten despite their inneficiences) or... the raider gangs (who the NCR can hold off, and can't do strategy properly/won't ally with each other,) they all want the NCR destroyed, but can't really do it. The only factions capable of destroying the NCR are the other main quest ending choices, or in other words, the player's choice. And even then, as Graves said, that would push them back to California, where it could sort itself out, or collapse, we don't know.

    Then again, I'm a Yes Man guy, so I want it out of my city anyways.
  10. KingArthur

    KingArthur Yeehaw Johnny Reb

    Jun 25, 2018
    I will concede that the raiders on their own won’t topple the Republic, but on multiple fronts? It’s shown in the ending slides that when the NCR is pushed out of Vegas, the fiends attack McCarran and inflict massive losses (assuming Cook Cook, Driver Nephi, Violet, and Motor Runner are still alive). Then there’s the Khans allying with the Legion, the Legion themselves, and the powder gang hitting NCR caravans and patrols.

    The NCR is the strongest faction in the wasteland for sure, but they simply can’t hold up a fight on multiple fronts like that for very long. Assuming all of the NCR’s enemies attack, or even minus one or two, the Republic will be overwhelmed and pushed back to California, where as I stated loss of support for war will ensure no public support for a counterattack.
  11. Apollyon

    Apollyon It Wandered In From the Wastes

    Apr 29, 2017
    I know too little of the NCR as a whole, but in the Mojave their days are numbered.

    Morale is low, corruption is rife, they are undermanned, under-supplied and under-gunned. All over the Mojave we see the NCR losing control and crumbling, materially as well as psychologically. What is more, even basic threats like the Fiends, the Khans and the Powder Gangers are too much for the NCR to handle on their own.

    The Legion, meanwhile, outfoxes them every step of the way, and is the sort of organized force that is capable of exploiting this precarious situation the NCR finds itself in. That the Legion is getting the better of the NCR is evidenced by numerous locations and events, which speak for themselves. Camp Forlorn Hope, Searchlight, Ranger Station Charlie, Nipton, the fate of the Monorail, etc. Not to mention the instances in which the NCR seems incapable of maintaining a status quo even without outside intervention, like the loss of control at the NCR Correctional Facility.
    In fact, the Wasteland critters reclaiming the Mojave seems a recurring theme in New Vegas. Camp Guardian is overrun by Lakelurks, Vegas is cut off from the Mojave Outpost by Deathclaws, Mojave Outpost even needs help to deal with giant ants marauding the trade routes, something which is again witnessed at El Dorado Dry Lake where we see the remains of an ambushed trade caravan being eaten by fire ants.

    The precarious situation of the NCR in the Mojave cannot be overstated. I am of the opinion that even an unlikely, successful defense of a second battle at Hoover Dam would prove a Pyrrhic victory, since the heavy losses it would incur would inevitably leave the NCR completely vulnerable to the predatory factions and perils of the Mojave, making consolidation even less likely.

    I have always felt that the only sensible course of action for the NCR is to abandon the Mojave and consolidate their position at Mojave Outpost.
    • [Rad] [Rad] x 1
  12. KingArthur

    KingArthur Yeehaw Johnny Reb

    Jun 25, 2018
    Indeed. At this point, the NCR’s trade route along the Long 15 is all they have left tying them to the Mojave, assuming the Courier doesn’t nuke it. Why not cut losses, rather than trying for a second battle at the Dam, a second battle that the Legion is clearly in a better position to win? Why not set up a perimeter at the Mojave Outpost?

    The NCR is simply in a bad position any way you cut it, and bullheaded leaders like Oliver and President Peaches aren’t helping matters. Hell, even Hanlon is losing faith in the cause of the Dam, which speaks volumes about the NCR’s faith in its own high command, when that high command of the most elite troops in the Mojave is unsure of victory and utterly demoralized.
  13. SquidVan

    SquidVan Pirate and Bankrobber oTO Orderite

    Jun 1, 2018
    Both of these factions seem fairly vulnerable to collapse in my opinion.

    Thinking that the NCR need the dam so much to their survival might be the opposite even. If they are spread too thin then wouldn't their worst enemy be their rapid expansion into new territory?

    They'll both fail eventually. They both are modeling themselves around the old world. In reality, it's too up in the air on their next actions to determine what will happen. If either succeed they could still easily fall. If either fail, they could easily fall. Keep in mind this is like the dawn of mass civilization but with some guidebooks (spoken word about the old world) left over from the old world because it already happened once before (also having advanced technology that didn't need to be completely invented from the ground up helped). They see these were the systems used for mass population. And that at the beginning is always a major struggle. We're talking about an anarchy at the large scale. Who holds power over the nation? These are new nations surrounded by lawlessness and others who are vying to take up the mantle of another nation. What happens when the continental USA, Central America, and Canada are redivided into many smaller nations? Do they find peace treaties? Do they conquest for resources and/or larger dominion? The world is a lot more stable now than it was when nations were first rising.
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2019
  14. KingArthur

    KingArthur Yeehaw Johnny Reb

    Jun 25, 2018
    Perhaps; but that stability is almost dependent on what nation rises; that of the Legion, NCR, House, or C6.

    The Dam is indeed a small chess piece in a much larger game, and perhaps will have minimal impact. But my argument is that with how much the NCR has deteriorated since Fallout 2, their collapse is on the horizon; the Legion and the Dam only serve to hasten it.
  15. SquidVan

    SquidVan Pirate and Bankrobber oTO Orderite

    Jun 1, 2018
    What's the Legion got going for it? Splitting into different tribes after the godhead dies? Also, too much relies on player's actions which none of which have been confirmed by anyone involved in the Fallout IP to have or not have happened.
  16. KingArthur

    KingArthur Yeehaw Johnny Reb

    Jun 25, 2018
    The Legion, like it or not, is efficient where the Republic is inefficient. Brutal and effective where the NCR is soft and useless. Ending slides show it; the Legion brings savage civilization to the Mojave, and wipes out raiders. The Republic struggles even to prosecute McLafferty and Gloria Van Graff should their conspiracy be turned in to the NCR.

    The NCR, quite frankly, is a shadow of the Old World. Perhaps the Legion is too. But like a shadow, the Republic has no substance. It has fallen from its glory in the Fallout 2 era, and rather gestates while the rot within destroys it. Corruption in the Legion will earn you a crucifixion. To put it bluntly? The Legion's dictatorial form of governance makes it less susceptible to the issues currently wracking the NCR.
  17. NMLevesque

    NMLevesque Commie Ghost

    Jul 2, 2016
    Oh, so we're rehashing this bullshit again. Lovely.
  18. KingArthur

    KingArthur Yeehaw Johnny Reb

    Jun 25, 2018
    Hey, Squad is the one that wanted me to talk about the Legion. I was more interested in talking about the NCR.
  19. Sublime

    Sublime Still Mildly Glowing

    Jun 5, 2018
    Despite all their problems I think the NCR Will survive. Though It would be better for them if House won: they won't have to deal with local issues and can get energy and water for a reasonable price, while having time to manager their own internal problem.

    The Legion I believe is in a much worse position, as Caesar's death would probably put an end to its unity as a State. I don't think however that its identity will be completely lost, rather it will fracture in several smaller States.
  20. KingArthur

    KingArthur Yeehaw Johnny Reb

    Jun 25, 2018
    @Sublime I can see your point; and I agree that it would certainly be better for the Republic in a House situation, whether they realize it or not. As for the NCR surviving, I think it depends on perspective. As you know, I’m a Legion supporter, so I may be askew in saying that the Republic will fall; however, objective warning signs are there. And whether the Republic truly survives in its ideal form is a matter of debate, hence this thread; I believe that should the NCR last longer than expected, they’ll still die in the sense as to be unrecognizable.

    As for the Legion, I think that smaller states is the most likely outcome, however pinning it all on Caesar’s cult of personality is a mistake many make. The Legion has its share of charismatic leaders, and whether they pull the Legion in different directions should Edward Sallow die is a matter of perspective and whether or not they can work together, despite their differences.