lol, why do I have the feeling I posted in the same thread before? I had to double check before I was sure that it was just a deja' vu.
A lot of people like to make comments about China but most of them don't have a clue about the country at all. The includes the journalists that was supposed to be informed and educated about the subject matters they write.
I sort of just skimmed through the basic discussions, but let's see:
1. RMB is a closed currency. You can not buy RMB outside of China, unless you are going through the black market.
2. If China and the US goes to war, the one to lose (in one sense)immediately is probably China. I am assuming a declaration of war negates the need for the US to pay the billions of USD debt owned to China. Imagine, your biggest debt holder is gone just like that, poof! 1100 Billions. I wonder how many years of surplus would that bring?
3. Even though China has the largest standing army in the world, 3.5 million and counting, I don't know how many is really ready to die for the party these days. Glory and profit with the least amount of risk is the rage these days. And from the start, I doubt they would be killing Americans, 2 places will light up first, ROC and South Korea. If one were to ignore ICBMs and such, US and China is still an ocean apart. It would be difficult for China to actually land soldiers on US soil.
4. Now here is the interesting bit about Chinese politics at the moment. After Mao and Deng, there is no real leader where the party cadres can point to as the one to make all the decisions at the moment. Even Deng had to jostle, cajole, pressure and coerce other powerful faction leaders into his bidding. Deng saved the party and created some of the current situations with the "To get rich is glorious" scheme after 1989.
Anyway, 4 - 5 things holds absolute power over China and ability to rule 1.3 billion people. CMC, NPCSC, CC of CCP/CPC, PSC and the State Council. Those of note will be the Politburo Standing Committee, the Central Military Commission, and probably the National People's Congress's Standing Committee ( Central Committee has historically been more influential in the party especially when Mao held the reins).
Hu Jintao is probably the current head ever since he jostled Jiang Zemin out of the most important position in the state, the chairman of the CMC and replaced a lot of Jiang's allies with his own after the new round of promotion and retirement in the PLA. But even that didn't happen until 2004, and the new round of promotion and retirement of Jiang's allied PLA generals didn't end until recently.
The general sentiment of the 2 recent leaders is that they are a stark contrast of each other. Jiang was considered a progressive, economic development first and political posturing second. Money comes before politics or face. He supposedly favored trade over guns. He technically belongs to the Shanghai camp. Hu on the other hand is a hardliner, and a conservative. In his eagerness to assert his power, he also showed that he is a bit sensitive and dislikes criticism. Hu is a staunch Beijing conservative. One thing old Beijingese cares about, is face. Most of his action can be viewed in that vein. It's generally considered by many that Hu is probably the least "heavy" of all China's leaders so far in its 60 years, which could be the reason why he cares about his hold on power and his legacy so much.
Ignoring the US or Euro's economical woes at the moment, China is facing some really big problems.
5. The only point I agree with so far, because there is a possibility of a civil war in China. The reason I posted some basics about the China's political situation above is because I want to explain why that's likely. Hu won his current position through his Beijing polished political skills and guile. That doesn't mean that his power is absolute, because he also has to coerce, cajole and blackmail other factions in the party just like Deng did. He is apparently putting a lot of pressure on the Shanghai camp, ousting quite a few personnel implanted by Jiang, thus sowing possible seeds of dissent. China also faces enormous social and economical problems that will get worse in the future. The idea that China and its market/economic growth will bail out the US or Euro is fairly flawed given China's problems.
Hu is trying to get out of it by preaching Confucianism. It won't work. Cultural revolution destroyed whatever morality and traditions inherited through years by the Mainland Chinese society. His dad was also a victim, and he should know better. But it's not like he has a choice in the matter. The disparity between the rich and poor is huge in China, especially between one that has a political pipeline and one that doesn't. The privatization of state enterprises is pretty much over and there isn't more money in that coffer any more. Even though Hu dealt with the social upheaval that was associated with the privatization with a deft hand, there are still millions out of work. (which is ironic, given that they are the "Communist" party, who is suppose to represent the poor factory workers and farmers against the filthy rich elitist land owners and business operators) 300 million or so is still living in absolute poverty. 98% literacy rates sounds nice until you learned that millions of young people barely graduated elementary or junior high school. Corruption is the de facto way to do anything.
And one of the biggest problems many mainland Chinese do dare voice out loud is their absolute distrust of authority and government. It's difficult to run a country this big when most of those involved in the government is out for political and financial gain. The problem is surfacing especially acutely among the current generation of professionals and middle upper class that holds up a large part of Chinese economy. One can easily see this from all the food scandals that are leaked out of China.
I haven't even started on the super biggies - land ownership, fiduciary responsibility, social welfare and lack of any sort of fairness in the courts.
A basic example that I use a lot. Should the current generation retire, and their housing lease is up, the new generation will have to support 7 people including his mortgage. His parents, his wife's parents, he and his wife and his child. I do not wish for this kind of baggage upon anybody.
As for a FallOutesque vision of dystopian world and a war between the 2? Well, economic warfare between the 2 has already been going for a long while now, but that doesn't make for goodaction movies or games.