Russian-Ukrainian war

Discussion in 'General Discussion Forum' started by Tagaziel, Feb 28, 2014.

  1. 13pm

    13pm Water Chip? Been There, Done That

    831
    Apr 10, 2007
    Dammit. The things are getting scarier.
    Yesterday they fired the chief editor of one of the best online media in Russia - Lenta.ru, because Lenta published an interview with the leader of Right Sector. Some time ago they replaced the head of RIA Novosti, which is, basically, governmently sponsored, but the guys were allowing themselves too many "free thoughts". The new head of the agency is Dmitry Kiselev, who is well-known for distorting the facts to broadcast the pro-governmental position.

    Couple of hours ago the Great Russian Firewall began to block oppositional resources: Navalny's blog, some more media.
    There was some queit, even liberal period before the Olympics, but now, the regime strikes again, even harder.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/russia-wipes-opposition-sites-from-the-internet

    On March, 16th there will be a referendum in Crimea. EU and US promised to apply sanctions towards Russia. And I'm afraid, the common people will be the first to suffer. There are already consequences: rouble's price is decreasing more and more. But the government doesn't seem to give a tiny fuck about it. The rouble's fall was expected after the Olympics, but this situation will just make it worse.
    The very thing I'm afraid of, is visa sanctions. I assume it will be good for Putin to shut Russia off the rest of the world, but holy fuck...

    I don't know, where all this shit is going to, but it surely doesn't look good at the moment.
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2014
  2. .Pixote.

    .Pixote. Carbon Dated and Proud
    Modder

    Sep 14, 2009
    Sadly most Russians supported Putin's rise to the top, and now they'll have to endue the consequences of his mafioso approach to Russia's neighbors. Within 10 years Ukraine will probably be a member of NATO, with NATO bases on its soil, and unless Putin wants to go to war with NATO there's nothing he can do about it.

    The man has painted himself into a corner, Russians need to voice their unhappiness, but expect a vicious response from the Kremlin - :sad:
     
  3. KarmaPolice

    KarmaPolice It Wandered In From the Wastes

    110
    May 5, 2010
    Ah, at least some are getting the true reason of this mess - NATO. A Ukraine that's a member of NATO, or *gasp* even the EU... waaay to close for comfort for the Kremlin. The old fears of being encircled rise in their head. Need to stop this 'rot' before it gets too big. Remember, Yeltsin had a fit when the Baltic States went West in the '90s, but Russia was too weak to stop them back then. Now, as you can see Putin thinks differently. I doubt it will get to actual war. Putin's not an idiot, and nor are some of his old KGB cronies. They know that the West will do the utmost to avoid war ('being reasonable' in our view, 'sign of weakness' in theirs) but if we're pushed right into a corner into a place we can't escape without humiliation we'll pick up the gun. Therefore, I predict this:

    1) After the Crimea vote, Russia will turn up the pressure a couple of notches. Expect 'spontaneous' demos in Russian cities in support. We'll start sweating. Kiev will scream.

    2) Putin will swoop in, playing the 'reasonable leader' and offer concessions. Not really concessions, just a fig-leaf so we can escape utter humiliation. This could be 'observers' in the region, a weakening of Kiev's central power so the region is de facto independent, whatever. Kiev will scream again, but we'll be induced to allay Kiev's fears of partition. This we probably will, possibly by waving white papers from planes.

    3) The Crimea will come under indirect Russian rule, but will allow enough room for those pro-Kiev people to pack their bags. Once most have fled, they'll hold another vote (actually fairer this time, due to ethnic 'readjustment') and they'll come solidly out of union with Russia.

    The question I ask is this - what does the West learn from this impending Munich re-run? And more importantly, what do we do about it? Can we finally get it into our thick skulls that this Russia is *not* reasonable, has a hankering after the old USSR, sees the drift of EU integration as a coalescing of all their historical enemies into one unit that could actually overpower Russia and looks to the waning American power with glee? In mentality? Putin is a dictator in the same mould as Stalin, Saddam Hussein et al: a disciple of realpolitik and seeing everything through a prism of 'might makes right'.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2014
  4. valcik

    valcik So Old I'm Losing Radiation Signs

    Dec 20, 2008
    Yup, it looks like some Russian accounts in European banks will be frozen soon and as you mentioned, some restrictions and prohibition about entering the Schengen Area for Russian people are discussed right now. It sounds pretty much like a second Cold War right now.

    As for decreasing rouble value, the Visegrad group countries are engaged in dialogue with American government regarding gas import, which will eventualy make us completely independent on Russian gas, if succeed. That won't help Russian economy either.
     
  5. Crni Vuk

    Crni Vuk M4A3 Oldfag oTO Orderite

    Nov 25, 2008
    I think if there is a new kind of cold war, which would be probably a lot more about economics rather then military power, then I think Russia has to lose a lot more here compared to the others, except for Europe maybe. We still need their gas like the junky his heroin. Maybe in such a case China could be the force that will tip the scale. Not only are they are huge market, but they also have quite some power.
     
  6. fred2

    fred2 Where'd That 6th Toe Come From?

    475
    Nov 2, 2013
    I guess that depends on your definition of "real injustice"... Interesting to note though that everyone in that civilized world don't agree with Russia, so either Russia is the only sane country, and everyone else are immoral and blind or Russia is.. Funny isn't that what people in Propaganda saturated Nazi Germany thought?
     
  7. Akratus

    Akratus Bleep bloop.

    May 14, 2011
    I'm not sure I follow. Are you implying I'm a supporter of Russia? And what does nazi germany have to do with anything?

    Tough I will admit that 'real injustice' was the wrong term. At least, the word 'real' in there, was.
     
  8. fred2

    fred2 Where'd That 6th Toe Come From?

    475
    Nov 2, 2013
    I am implying that usually when one guy screaming that everyone around him are insane and blind to the trruth, it usually he is the one who is is insane.

    As for Nazi Germany, many compared it to Putin's Russia: the Authoritarian rule, the blunt propaganda\censorship in Russian nationalized media, education for patriotism, the external enemies(west) ...etc... the eve of Olympic games and using "protecting" their ethnic to take over regions. Though I mused over the state of Russian media\censorship, how so many Russian(or anti-west hipsters) seem to think that the "west" is immoral and or out to get them, and how Nazi Germany(which was known for its propaganda ) citizens must have felt the same.
     
  9. Sub-Human

    Sub-Human -

    May 31, 2011
    So the polls concluded. 93% in favor of Russia's annexation. Ha! Why not 99%, like it is in the North Caucasus?

    Gotta thank the Tatars and pro-Maidan groups who boycotted too. They got what they wanted now. :)
     
  10. zegh8578

    zegh8578 Keeper of the trout Orderite

    Mar 11, 2012
    Let us at least hope that this settles down now. Crimea goes to Russia. America got Saddam hung. Things change. Superpowers get to veto stuff, and get away with stuff. At least it has not culminated in major bloodshed - which should be everyones first concern, in the end.
     
  11. fred2

    fred2 Where'd That 6th Toe Come From?

    475
    Nov 2, 2013
    It has been in the work for a long time. Putin has been reviving the old school Soviet propaganda, nationalization of major media outlets happened years ago, that plus new laws/education for patriotism in schools help them to create/maintain the image of himself and Russia in us vs them(west) in a self perpetuating problem.

    The polls are illegitimate with or without the boycott, no inspector would allow referendum in such circumstance or legitimize previous votes which were made under siege.

    How is Iraq/Sadam is in anyway similar to Russia/Crimea/Georgia :violent:

    I hope you are not suggesting that NATO is to blame for this mess. Also Ukraine isn't a member of NATO nor the EU (they tried to join the EU)
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2014
  12. zegh8578

    zegh8578 Keeper of the trout Orderite

    Mar 11, 2012
    Both are examples of a superpower vetoing UN resolutions to do what they want to do, while the world watches.
    Do you disagree wholeheartedly, angrily, with hammers?
     
  13. lujo

    lujo Look, Ma! Two Heads!

    334
    Jun 14, 2013
    ^ As if Ukraine wouldn't become a member of NATO in a heartbeat if it went it's way. Putin's interest in Ukraine is about whether he gets to park his gunboats in Sevastopolj or if someone else has that right. He'll probably grab what else he can get to have a bit of land for connection, defense & supply lines, but might even not. He certainly doesn't need to have a war in Ukraine, and here's why:

    Disclaimer: Apology to any decent folks from the EU, you guys just live your lives and aren't accountable for anything. It's about your political/financial elites.

    Putin gets Crimea (and whoever else votes to join him), rest of Ukraine goes "free". If it manages to join the EU it'll take a while, but Ukraine's economy is about 100% dependent on Russia. EU is all about destroying the economy of it's colonies - ask any non central-european country, and ask any country which decided not to join it. Most of their power structures and don't actually KNOW how to improve an economy, most of it is based on near-slave labor from countries like Ukraine allready in the EU, import of raw unprocessed goods from these countries and selling them back their own stuff unprocessed or processed. This is what's been going on in Croatia for the past... god knows how long, and seems to be what is happening everywhere outside of the core founding countries of the EU.

    The EU can send financial help, but a big part of that is going to get allocated the way the local political elite wants, IE stolen. The previous political elite (Janukovich) is going to be blamed for the "crisis". If the EU helps in any way, most of the help is going to line politico's pockets, you can be 100% sure of that. Is this any worse than it was with Janukovich?

    Well, no, but there IS a catch, and that catch is why Janukovich decided to bail on the deal with the EU and turn towards Russians - he figured out that what Ukraine was going to get from the EU would probably be enough to keep him lining his pockets, but would actually be waaaaay less than he was getting from Russia. The country is allready in deep s**t as far as anyone can tell, and he wasn't getting all that much from Russia - but he was getting just barely enough that if he steals most of it and most of the proffits, at least the country doesn't collapse completely.

    So now the new guys will be in the position in which Janukovich would've been had he completed his deal with the EU, except they won't have his bargaining chip for mollifying Russia into letting Ukraine at least export and have some gas. That was Sevastopolj. Putin really, trully doesn't give a rat's ass about Ukraine other than the strategic spots. Now that he has Crimea, he'll probably just kiss the rest goodbye along with all the expenses of maintaining a non-proffit oligarchy and have one less worry in his life (maybe he'll take some more land, but very dieffinitely not the whole of Ukraine - he'd gladly let the western half go). It'll be a never ending supply of press topics for his media machine and serve nicely to keep the people occupied, and it won't cost him a dime.

    And the Ukraine that splits from Russia won't find any joy in Europe. A lot of people will emigrate at the first opportunity and be low level wage slaves or service industry slaves in the west. Winter will come around and there will probably be even worse protests than there were this year - the EU has not in fact sucessfully helped a country ever, and it's can't and wont. One of the main things which was all over the papers in Croatia for 10 years was how political corruption is going to end once we get into EU (Yanukovich style political corruption). Turns out that everything from the economic crisis in Yougoslavia, to the war to every single instance of unbelievable corruption in Croatia throughout my whole life was... just a small scale backwater operation for EU tycoons. Tons of it is out in the open (especially since Jorg Heider died so he became an acceptable target), except there's noone to process anything - they own all the courts.

    The Gremans own the local telecomunications and charge the highest ammount in Europe for impulses, all the banks have been sold to foreigners, 95% of the factories have been systematicaly dismantled, big hotels were being devastated just so that Europeans could buy them for insanely low prices, we produce enough food to feed the country many times over, but we IMPORT food from the EU, imported cigarretes cost less to buy than localy produced ones (and only the price of the local ones goes up whenever EU passess an anti-tobacco bill), running any sort of bussiness is impossible because of all the laws and adjustment we were forced to adopt, while "non-proffit organizations" funded by the EU pay no taxes, mayor goverment projects are undertaken only with the blessing of foreign bank owners - the goverment officals take huge gratf, to both steal for themselves AND inflate the costs, and the banks lend money at ridiculous interest that keeps pushing the country more and more into debt which is then repayed by giving away more terrain and infrastructure. We built a highway at 27 (!) times more than it costs, and the interest on that loan makes it so unproffitable that we're forced to sell it to the foreign banks - and during summer half of Europe seems to pass throught the toll booths on that highway since we're a big tourist destination (and it leads south towards Greece and Turkey). Oh, and since we joined, there's no entry fee into our country, so our tourism took a large hit there as well. Oh, and importing stuff is easier than ever. Oh, and a huge proffit is being made by foreign pharmaceutical companies, I know this from very personal experience, but all the pharma companies are rutinely bribing doctors to perscribe their products (that's all their marketing departments do, in fact, even though it's illegal). There's about 20 of them, and they're all doing it - but the only companies which get fined for it are the few local ones (dismantling of a local company for corruption was a big media circus last year, my friends in the pharma biz were rolling their eyes about how every single pharma company could be destroyed in an afternoon on those charges, but no politician would touch EU companies because their only job is to make sure noone interfears with the systematic robbery commited daily by them.) We have 400.000 unemployed in a country of 4.000.000 and our goverment got payed to pass a set of laws which let employers lay people off even more easily, and then bailed a ton of foreign firms out of private debt (including their entire propaganda machine) with the money that came out of the countries budget by taking out even more loans from foreign banks. Goverment departments are contracted to buy new "cars parks" from EU manufacturers every year at exorbitant costs. Food produced and processed in Croatia is more expensive in Croatia than in Germany. Too many families live off the grandparents pensions, and those pensions were earned while there was anywhere to earn them in - once that generation dies, there will be actual, real hunger. Bosnians, also in their sphere of influence, burned goverment skyscrapers a month or so ago - in about 5 or 10 years you can expect the same and worse here, but all due to the EU. I could go on for days, it's quite unbelievable, they hardly even bother to hide it anymore... There is not one single thing the EU is good for, short or long term - they have nothing at all to offer.

    I suppose Russians are quite as bad, but I've felt the EU and no sane group of people would want anything to do with them if it at all could be avoided. Heck, even scum like Janukovich decided that they were the worse deal, and immagine how bad a deal they are when Putin seems like a clearly better option. Had it not been for the demonstrations, his bargaining to get more out of Putin because EU offered anything was actually a stroke of genious. The only way membership in the EU could possibly benefit anyone in Ukraine is if they're all allowed to leave the country at once, which they won't be because they'd flood the allready strained job market. So, as I said, come winter, there'll be a lot of pissed off Ukrainians even worse off than they were before - because now Russia really has no reason to even talk to them, but can deny them access to the Russian market or turn their gas off whenever it wants (Putin did so before I think). Russia's got that on the EU - they can actually give you access to their market, and they can sell you gas.

    Only, if there's new riots next year, Putin might sponsor the new rioters, just for the heck of it...
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2014
  14. fred2

    fred2 Where'd That 6th Toe Come From?

    475
    Nov 2, 2013
    I see.. although since this thread isn't about the UN security council structure or possible abuse by it's permanent members, but about the Russia conduct in the current Ukrainian Crisis, which you presumably compared to US/NATO in Iraq.

    TO save me some time, here is a related comment from anther forum I am following:
    So while there are superficial similarities, its a case of apples and oranges...
     
  15. zegh8578

    zegh8578 Keeper of the trout Orderite

    Mar 11, 2012
    I wasn't saying that they are similar situations. I said "America got Saddam hung". Please note that I am not arguing against you, or trying to contradict you: I agree that they are not similar situations. I really dislike arguing when I am not actually disagreeing with someone...

    USA and Russia both vetoed a UN resolution to prevent them from interfering with another nations sovereignty. That is all the comparison I did.
     
  16. fred2

    fred2 Where'd That 6th Toe Come From?

    475
    Nov 2, 2013
    Sorry, I have been following this in news and lurking around this topic, and this argument seem to show again and again and again, and those topic bring the worst in me :(

    Anyway, a minor nitpick, Ukraine\crimea is not under Russia sovereignty, in fact Russia has assured Ukraine Sovereignty and territorial integrity which it now breaks.
     
  17. zegh8578

    zegh8578 Keeper of the trout Orderite

    Mar 11, 2012
    Don't worry, I've fallen in the same trap myself, seeing a lot of one type of argument, then replying against that argument, when someone was in fact saying something else or similar :D

    Sovereignty/control often is split into de facto and de jure, the first signifying in practice, the latter in theory (not litteral translations),

    So... One can safely say that Ukraine has a de facto sovereignty over most its territory, but only a de jure sovereignty over Crimea (since here, Russia is indeed the one controlling the territory - in practice!), the same way that Georgia still has a de jure sovereignty over Abkhazia and Ossetia, but not at all in practice, since those territories are still controlled by Russian forces.
     
  18. UniversalWolf

    UniversalWolf eaten by a grue.

    Aug 28, 2005
    Obama should challenge Putin to single combat.

    When they get in the ring together, Barry can whip out his Nobel Peace Prize and clonk Vlad on the head with it.
     
  19. Crni Vuk

    Crni Vuk M4A3 Oldfag oTO Orderite

    Nov 25, 2008
    putin would crush obama. He's a martial arts expert. And Ex-KGB. Hell, they should do a movie about him, where the Kremlin gets overrun by terrorists and Putin saves the day, Rambo style.
     
  20. zegh8578

    zegh8578 Keeper of the trout Orderite

    Mar 11, 2012
    You forget that Obama is black

    which makes him badass

    >_>